Miscalculation as high as it was in August 1914 No one outside of Serbia expected war

On the domestic political side, neither the United States nor Russia are as stable or predictable as they were in the Cold War and Putin, in all his cocksureness, pushed his country into a conflict none foresaw.

The untrustworthy one who claimed that others were lying has attacked Ukraine anyway

No intention to do what they accused him off

Sleepwalking in a war

He who kept saying for weeks that the Americans were lying about his intentions and pushing for war proved at the end of last month that it was not they who were lying, but he who was visibly preparing his plan.

a similar danger was emerging. He wrote

The actions of Belarus, now backed by Russia, are far more than a deliberately triggered refugee crisis. They are a deliberate attempt to provoke both the European Union and NATO, with the subsequent danger of escalation.

We could see that all the ingredients were there: The Belarussian dictator, Lukashenko, as a tin pot version of Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria Hungary, facing the threat of the loss of power at home, was desperate to preserve his “empire”.

Engaging in a hybrid warfare

To that end, the president for life, Lukashenko has enlisted Russia as a means of suppressing his own population and countering western sanctions. Lukashenko engaged in “hybrid warfare” by provoking an immigration crisis on Poland’s border. At that time Ukraine was not like Hungary in 1956 in the Soviet alliance system but had difficulty having Russia breathing on its neck whilst not having a safety net like when it would be a member of the NATO alliance.

The Globalist wrote

Putin, in all his cocksureness, can easily miscalculate U.S. intentions and push it into a conflict neither foresees. It is not inconceivable that the United States, like Wilhelm’s Germany, could be pulled in by its NATO allies in Poland and the Baltic states. {Putin, the Master Strategist? Is 2021 Our 1914?}

Szabado also remarked

the Cold War and especially the threat of nuclear war with the USSR crucially limited the political divisions within U.S. politics and resulted in a bipartisan foreign and defense policy.

Those days are now long gone and neither Putin nor America’s NATO allies can have much confidence in the stability or predictability of U.S. policy. {Putin, the Master Strategist? Is 2021 Our 1914?}

Raised in the environment

Longest-serving Kremlin leader since Stalin

As a child of the KGB, Putin knows the tricks of the trade and knows better than anyone how things can be prepared in secret. Until the troop buildup around Ukraine‘s borders did raise suspicions, some, including the United States, began to have serious concerns, but Putin continued to insist that it was only military exercises and that he certainly did not intended to invade Ukraine as the U.S. claimed.

The former KGB agent has been leader of Russia in some form or another since 2000, making him the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Joseph Stalin. Putin has called the breakup of the USSR the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”, and while taking questions a few years ago, the Russian leader was asked what event in his nation’s history he would have liked to change. “The collapse of the Soviet Union,” he responded.

Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians

In July 2021, he published a self-penned 7,000-word essay called ‘On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians’, a laborious analysis spanning 1,000 years which seeks to make a case that Ukraine is part of a larger Russia. Simultaneously, pro-Russian protests broke out in the eastern Donbas region, which has closer cultural and linguistic ties to Russia than much of Ukraine, and the situation devolved into armed conflict between the government in Kyiv and separatist groups backed by Moscow.

Map of Ukraine in 1720, showing the lands of the Cossacks, the Krimean Khanate, Ottoman and Russian Empires, Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, Wallachia and Moldova. Ukraine is already a recognised territory.

Polling of Russian citizens since the early 1990’s have shown that strong and consistent majorities regret the fall of the USSR, and when Putin ordered the takeover of the then-Ukranian province of Crimea in 2014, his approval numbers shot up almost twenty percentage points. He enjoyed similar popularity boosts earlier in his career after forays into Chechnya and Georgia. Putin clearly sees transnational military incursions as a useful crowd-pleaser.

Domestic political benefits

Putin, like no other, understands the domestic political benefits that he could gain from an aggressive nationalistic and expansionist agenda. Knowing that lots of people around Russia found they had it better in the USSR times, gives him good reason to make his dreams of restoring Russia as a world power through. The combination of those two goals has led to a pronounced acceleration in his efforts to re-establish control over the remainder of Ukraine. Some saw the buildup of Russian troops at the border between the two countries as a sign that he was going to invade Ukraine to connect it where it belongs, namely as part of Russia.

Russia’s dominance

Putin is not so much interested in what others might think, for him the only important thing is that he wants to be remembered as the one who managed to restore the great empire back again. He seeks to maintain Russia’s dominance in its so-called “sphere of influence” and diminish Western influence, both inside and around Russia. He wants to weaken the unity of the West from within by increasing polarization. When he talks of the Soviet Union’s disintegration, he emphasizes how many Russian citizens wound up outside of Russian territory.

“As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy,”

Putin says

 “Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.”

The term “fringes” implies borders that are neither particularly sturdy nor enduring. We, in the West, should be fully aware of the danger that in addition to Ukraine, and his puppet regime in Belarus, Putin also could easily scale up his saber-rattling toward nervous neighbours such as Georgia, Moldova and Kazakhstan. Or if he were feeling even more confident, NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could become targets as well.

Tied to the legitimacy of the Putin system

In 2021 both Belarus and Ukraine were tied to the legitimacy of the Putin system which needs external enemies to justify its dominance of Russian society and fears the attractiveness of democratic alternatives. Ukraine asked the West not to sow panic but was also aware that the Russian leader wanted to reinforce his legitimacy.

The NATO-Russia Council was set up two decades ago, but full meetings paused when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula nearly eight years ago. It has met only sporadically since.

New Russia and Ukrainian South-Eastern regions

Since 2014, the Donbas region in the east and the Black Sea coast have been at the centre of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. (This land was known as “New Russia” (Novorossiya) by Catherine II “the Great” after her armies conquered them in the 1770s. But only a few Russians moved to the south Ukrainian “wild field” (dikoe pole), prompting the recruitment of foreign settlers from elsewhere in Europe.)

“New Russia” was never really very Russian. Historically, its territory was settled by Mennonites and Catholic Germans, French and Italian traders as well as large numbers of Greeks, Jews (from Poland and west Ukraine), Bulgarians, Serbs, and of course Ukrainians.

When Vladimir Putin refers to this large region as “New Russia”, he mostly reveals an inadequate understanding of Ukraine’s multi-ethnic past. Trying to understand Ukraine solely through the Russian prism is limiting: Ukrainian identity is a synthesis of its multicultural population which is connected not solely to Russia, but also, substantially, to central European states and the Black Sea region. {How Russian is Ukraine? (Clue: not as much as Vladimir Putin insists)}

Since backing the separatist insurgency in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland in 2014 the fighting has killed more than 14,000 people.

Face to face calls seeking guaranties

On Tuesday the 7th December 2021 American President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin squared off in a secure video call, face to face for over two hours, the U.S. president putting Moscow on notice that an invasion of Ukraine would bring sanctions and enormous harm to the Russian economy.

A Ukrainian soldier patrols at the checkpoint.
A Ukrainian soldier patrols at the checkpoint in the village of Shyrokyne near Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 26. Aleksey Filippov/AFP via Getty Images

With tens of thousands of Russian troops massed on the Ukraine border, the highly anticipated call between the two leaders came amid growing worries by the U.S. and Western allies about Russia’s threat to its neighbour.

Putin, for his part, came into the meeting seeking guarantees from Biden that the NATO military alliance will never expand to include Ukraine, which has long sought membership. The Americans and their NATO allies said that request was a non-starter.

When invading Ukraine

Biden said if Russia further would invade Ukraine, the United States and the European allies would respond with strong economic measures and would

“provide additional defensive materiel to the Ukrainians … and … would fortify our NATO allies on the eastern flank with additional capabilities in response to such an escalation.”

A top U.S. envoy, Victoria Nuland, said on the 7th of December 2021, a Russian invasion of Ukraine also would jeopardize a controversial pipeline between Russia and Germany. She told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday that if Russia invaded,

 “our expectation is that the pipeline will be suspended.”

As the U.S. and Russian presidents conferred, Ukraine grew only more anxious about the tens of thousands of Russian troops that had been deployed near its border. Ukrainian officials charged Russia had further escalated the smoldering crisis by sending tanks and snipers to war-torn eastern Ukraine to “provoke return fire” and lay a pretext for a potential invasion.

Russia assuring: Never going to attack

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said more than once

“Russia has never planned to attack anyone.”

The Russian government wanted to give the idea that it was more wishful thinking of the West that Russia would give them a reason to go to war with each other.

Putin said Russia did not want a war but wants the West to know it does not want Nato’s eastern enlargement, above all to Ukraine. It wants to ban offensive weapons near Russia’s borders — again, especially in Ukraine. And it wants Nato to withdraw all military forces and infrastructure it deployed to the 14 new members that have joined since 1999.

Western accusations merely a cover for NATO’s own planned provocations

In January 2022 Russia kept denying it was planning an invasion. It said Western accusations were merely a cover for NATO’s own planned provocations. In the second half of January, we could see high-stakes diplomacy that failed to reach any breakthrough, and key players in the drama were making moves that suggested fear of imminent war. Biden has sought to strike a balance between actions meant to deter Putin and those that might provide the Russian leader with an opening to use the huge force he has assembled at Ukraine’s border.
Spokespersons for Russia indicated that Russia was only looking toward talks, not an invasion.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Oleg Nikolenko, said that U.S. decision was “a premature step” and a sign of “excessive caution.” He said Russia was sowing panic among Ukrainians and foreigners in order to destabilize Ukraine.

Display of power

Under Putin, Russia is always ready to jump at any opportunity to act as a spoiler in the international arena. It is a nation that, sadly, excels only in negative displays of power.

It stands to reason that Putin actions have had the opposite effect of what he desired. Western countries have maintained a reasonably united front against Russia, as the sanctions and military deployments by NATO countries have shown. He also did not want Ukraine to connect with the West, but now sees Ukraine asking for a quick acceptance to become an EU-member.

Strongest military force

It might look a little bit ridiculous that Putin has such fear because Russia remains the most powerful post-Soviet state. It has a seat on the UN Security Council, the strongest military and the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. For him, the independence of Russia’s neighbours pose not a military threat to the country’s security, but they pose a political threat to his rule. Putin worries that if any of these states become a successful and prosperous democracy, let alone fully integrate with the west, the Russian people will demand the same. To forestall that, Putin has tried to ensure the neighbouring states are run by strongmen dependent on Russia to stay in power.

On Sunday January 23 2022, the Russian foreign minister’s team warned Japan to stay out of the brewing Ukraine crisis after U.S. officials touted a “close alignment” with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the lead-up to a potential eruption of violence in Eastern Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s office expressed “puzzlement” at the “inadmissibility and senselessness” of Japan’s warning that it was poised to take “strong actions” in light of the Eastern European power’s recent actions in Ukraine.

Diplomatic talks

There have been lots of diplomatic talks between officials from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany in the hope of resolving the standoff, but to no avail.

TV pundits, journalists, and even U.S. President Joe Biden had zeroed in on the idea that the Russian military needed to wait to launch an attack until at least mid-February, when the ground around Ukraine’s borders would be frozen hard, enabling Russia’s ground forces to roll in without getting bogged down in mud.

On February the 2nd Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s top security demands but said Moscow was still willing to talk more to ease tensions over Ukraine. He also retorted that the U.S. and its allies were the only ones talking invasion.

Those Not opposite those Well Fearing War

Also the Ukrainians did not seem to fear war. While waves of Ukrainians fled their homes during 2014 fighting that saw Russia annex the Crimean Peninsula and back separatists in the eastern province of Donbas, so far people were staying put in the areas closest to the Russian troop movements.

On Friday the 19th of February U.S. President Joe Biden said that he was “convinced” Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade Ukraine, including an assault on the capital, as tensions spiked along the country’s militarized line with attacks that the West said could be “false-flag” operations meant to establish a pretext for invasion. But again and again, Putin said such talk was only sending fearmongering into the world, because he had no plans to invade Ukraine.

“I am mindful that some have called into question our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out,”

Antony Blinken said on the 17th of February.

“But let me be clear: I am here today not to start a war but to prevent one.”

Residents of the Ukrainian city of Donetsk, which is controlled by Russian-backed separatists, board a bus arranged to evacuate local civilians. © REUTERS

February 18, Kremlin brinkmanship along the Ukrainian border escalated on Friday, with President Vladimir Putin accusing Kyiv of intentionally stoking tensions in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow-backed separatists ordered an evacuation of civilians to Russia. Ukrainian security services vociferously denied any unilateral moves in the region. But the increased Russian sabre-rattling reinforced the view in several western capitals, including Washington, that Putin was creating a pretence to invade.

Russia had drafted lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian assault on Ukraine.

By February 21 lots of people were convinced that a conflict between Kyiv and Moscow would amount to a war on a scale not seen since the Second World War. Some even said it could be the beginning of the Third World War.

A decree

People from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the territory controlled by a pro-Russia separatist governments in eastern Ukraine, watch Russian President Vladimir Putin's address at their temporary place in Rostov-on-Don region, Russia, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. Putin said he would decide later Monday whether to recognize the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, a move that would ratchet up tensions with the West amid fears that Moscow could launch an invasion of Ukraine imminently. (AP Photo/Denis Kaminev)
People from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the territory controlled by a pro-Russia separatist governments in eastern Ukraine, watch Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address at their temporary place in Rostov-on-Don region, Russia, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. Putin said he would decide later Monday whether to recognize the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, a move that would ratchet up tensions with the West amid fears that Moscow could launch an invasion of Ukraine imminently. (AP Photo/Denis Kaminev)

A vaguely worded decree signed by Putin appeared to dash the slim remaining hopes of averting a major conflict in Europe that could cause massive casualties, energy shortages on the continent and economic chaos around the globe.

Putin justified his decision to immediately recognize the independence and sovereignty of Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic in a far-reaching, pre-recorded speech blaming NATO for the current crisis and calling the U.S.-led alliance an existential threat to Russia. Sweeping through more than a century of history, he painted today’s Ukraine as a modern construct that is inextricably linked to Russia. He charged that Ukraine had inherited Russia’s historic lands and after the Soviet collapse was used by the West to contain Russia.

Putin’s government then ordered troops to those regions.

Underscoring the urgency, the U.N. Security Council held a rare nighttime emergency meeting on Monday February 22, at the request of Ukraine, the U.S. and other countries. Undersecretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo opened the session with a warning that

“the risk of major conflict is real and needs to be prevented at all costs.”

Shared history and bloodbrothers

Statue of Catherine the Great in Odessa, Ukraine.
Mother of all Russians? Catherine the Great remembered in Odessa, Ukraine. Multipedia via Shutterstock

Despite centuries of shared history during the rise and fall of empires and the formation and dissolution of nation states in the region, Ukraine has its own origin story which is quite distinct from that of Russia, despite the best efforts of the tsars and commissars.

William A. Galston of the Wall Street Journal wrote

An independent Ukraine is for Vladimir Putin what the Treaty of Versailles was for Hitler —a historical injustice imposed on a defeated nation at its moment of greatest weakness, to be reversed as soon as circumstances allow.

The European Union’s executive branch leader, Ursula von der Leyen, condemned Putin’s action as a

“blatant violation of international law.”

And NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said,

“I condemn Russia’s decision to extend recognition to the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic.’”

In an address to the Ukrainian people at just after 2am local time, President Volodymyr Zelensky said:

“We are not afraid. We won’t cede anything.”

UK health secretary Sajid Javid told Sky on 2022 February 22, Tuesday morning:

“You can conclude that the invasion of Ukraine has begun.”

“We are waking up to a very dark day in Europe and it’s clear from what we have already seen and found out today that the Russians, president Putin, has decided to attack the sovereignty of Ukraine and its territorial integrity

Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister, did his best – by virtue of a rousing speech – to make his domestic “party gate” troubles forgotten, at least momentarily.

Military force and sanctions

Russian army unit at undisclosed location, February 20th 2022
Russian army unit at undisclosed location, February 20th 2022

The East-West faceoff over Ukraine escalated dramatically that Tuesday, with Russian lawmakers authorizing President Vladimir Putin to use military force outside his country and U.S. President Joe Biden and European leaders responding by slapping sanctions on Russian oligarchs and banks.

Speaking at the White House, Biden said the Kremlin had flagrantly violated international law in what he called the “beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.” He warned of more sanctions if Putin went further.

Speaking to reporters at a joint press briefing with his Estonian counterpart Tuesday afternoon, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that he was seriously considering a recommendation from the Foreign Ministry to cut diplomatic contact with Russia.

War declared

Tom Nichols of The Atlantic wrote

“Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a long speech full of heavy sighs and dark grievances, made clear today that he has chosen war. He went to war against Ukraine in 2014; now he has declared war against the international order of the past 30 years.
France said Russian president Vladimir Putin had agreed to work for a ceasefire in a disputed part of eastern Ukraine where fighting has escalated (Evgeniy Maloletka/AP)
Eastern Ukraine where fighting has escalated (Evgeniy Maloletka/AP)

Evidently, Putin made a very serious mistake in hoping that Ukrainian Russians would join him and turn against the others in Ukraine. After his outrageous act of attacking and destroying civilians’ property, the bond of the Ukrainian people has rather been strengthened and they stand united against the attackers.

Concerning the popularity in his own Russia, we are not yet so sure Putin has gained with invading Ukraine. As soon as protestors come on the streets they are taken by the police.

Shrinking nations and Popularity

There are no young men marching through Moscow or St. Petersburg, eager to express their willingness to offer a personal sacrifice for the nation. Evidently, hardly anyone wants to die for Vladimir and Holy Russia.

And no wonder. Their Russian homeland is one of the world’s rapidly shrinking nations in terms of population size. Between 1950 and 2021, the average age in Russia has risen from 24 to 40. (It may actually be closer to 45 years on average, given that there are only 117 million ethnic Russians in a total population of 146 million.)

The country’s so-called “war index” stands at around 0.7. That means, for every 1,000 men between the ages of 55 and 59, there are only 700 youngsters between 15 and 19.

No wonder either that, under these circumstances, the Russian nation as a whole fears potentially significant losses. After all, an entire family line can easily be wiped out with every casualty.

It is true Ukraine is also teetering demographically. It is increasing its average age from 28 to 41 between 1950 and 2021. And the country is on comparably shaky ground when it comes to the “War Index”.

Kievan Rus

Wath about the Kievan Rus? Putin now after a few days of war, came to see those Ukrainians could come to unite and feel more as brothers and sisters prepared to defend “their” homeland Ukraine. There may be more of a determined national spirit to survive — and to be free — than on the Russian side. However, one can be rather certain that the willingness to accept losses will quickly die out in Ukraine as well.

Full-scale invasion of Ukraine

On Wednesday and Thursday night 23-24 Feburay that happened what Putin said he was never planning to do. At 5:50 a.m. Moscow time on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Russian forces launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine early in the morning, following a televised speech from Vladimir Putin in which he announced a “special military operation” for the

“demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine.

Attacks, caused by missiles and artillery fire, had begun across Ukraine, including around the capital Kiev, and the sea ports of Odessa and Mariupol, Kharkiv and Dnipro.

Russia’s defence ministry said that morning that they had “neutralised” Ukraine’s air defences. Ukraine’s military previously said in a statement that their air force were fighting off an air attack from Russia.

Ukraine has also accused Russia of moving military equipment into the country from annexed Crimea.

Even when pictures showed the world differently the Russian Ministry of Defense still denied that Ukrainian cities had been subject to any missile strikes and insisted that only military infrastructures were being targeted. Later, it reported:

“Military infrastructure at Ukrainian army air bases has been rendered out of action.”

Post-Cold War security order

It became a fact! Russia pressed its invasion of Ukraine to the outskirts of the capital Friday, February the 25th, after unleashing airstrikes on cities and military bases and sending in troops and tanks from three sides in an attack that could rewrite the global post-Cold War security order.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the government had information that “subversive groups” were encroaching on the city, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Kyiv “could well be under siege” in what U.S. officials believe is a brazen attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to dismantle the government and replace it with his own regime.

Russia’s escalation Wednesday came as President Joe Biden, in his State of the Union speech to Americans on Tuesday night, warned that if the Russian leader didn’t “pay a price” for the invasion, the aggression wouldn’t stop with one country.

Today, we know that Putin might be disappointed because it takes longer than expected. The  40-mile (64-kilometer) convoy of hundreds of Russian tanks and other vehicles advanced more slowly than foreseen on Kyiv, a city of nearly 3 million people. The West feared it was part of a bid by Putin to topple the government and install a Kremlin-friendly regime. The Russians also pressed their assault on other towns and cities, including the strategic ports of Odessa and Mariupol in the south.

A senior U.S. defense official said Russia’s military progress has slowed, plagued by logistical and supply problems. Some Russian military columns have run out of gas and food, the official said, and morale has suffered as a result, also several Russian servicemen thought they were going for an exercise but were bombarded in a war. The Russian military has also been stalled by fierce resistance on the ground, even with civilians not minding to form a human shield in front of the Russian vehicles, and a surprising inability to completely dominate Ukraine’s airspace.

It already appears that there is a danger that this war could be long-lasting, with an urban guerrilla war not excluded.

Ukrainian servicemen sit atop armored personnel carriers driving on a road in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday announced a military operation in Ukraine and warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to "consequences you have never seen." (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)
Ukrainian servicemen sit atop armored personnel carriers driving on a road in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday announced a military operation in Ukraine and warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences you have never seen.” (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

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Preceding

A Jew who would be a Nazi who has to be killed according president Putin

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Additional reading

  1. Mother of Ukraine or Crimea
  2. Battling Borshct in Ukraine
  3. Mastery from Kiev, Ukraine
  4. Ukrainians should be free to shape the future of their country
  5. When Crimean people made their choice
  6. Crimea votes overwhelmingly to join Russia
  7. “If Perestroika Fails…”: The Last Summer of the Cold War – June-July 1991.
  8. Putin and Xi form a new axis against Nato
  9. Key element to the Ukrainian-Russian conflict
  10. Prepare for Russian invasion of Ukraine, US warns European allies
  11. Moscow lists demands for defusing Ukraine tensions
  12. Looking at 2021 in a nutshell
  13. 2021 in review #1 the most startling point
  14. 2022 Political hotchpotch
  15. Russia has ‘no trust’ in Nato over Ukraine
  16. Britain warns Russia over Ukraine
  17. European migration policy not working
  18. Russia reacting to attempts to break ‘strategic parity’
  19. Tensions increase along Ukrainian frontlines amid Russia conflict
  20. Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Russian troop movements
  21. Putin’s ‘staged atrocity’ plan to justify Russian invasion of Ukraine
  22. If Russia chooses to fail to de-escalate
  23. A Brief Look at NATO and Russia’s Push to Reform the Old Soviet Union
  24. Russian bombers fly over Belarus as border crisis deepens
  25. About 100 soldiers from Royal Engineers reportedly being sent to help reinforce frontier
  26. Russian government planning a “false-flag” operation
  27. Russian government has the power to shut down any sort of organisation they do not like
  28. The strategic error Putin is potentially about to make
  29. Interference in internal affairs
  30. Sings of the times – Difficult moments at the borders of Europe
  31. A lot of talk about a war beginning soon
  32. Wars and Rumors of War…Russia Moves into Belarus
  33. The world on the very brink of conflict
  34. Are we shambling into WWIII?
  35. Why Putin’s Attack on Ukraine Could Mean World War 3
  36. USSR – USA – Cold-, Hot Wars and memorandi
  37. Putin plays dangerous poker game
  38. A useless but very dangerous challenge game
  39. Will Ukraine Escape Russian Domination?
  40. Ukraine prepares
  41. We are going to feel this – says Biden
  42. Ukraine’s Day of Unity
  43. Make Ukraine A Buffer State Between Russia & the EU
  44. Social Putin

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Find also further to read

  1. Russia’s civil society crackdown continues  By Tanya Lokshina, Special to CNN
  2. How Russian is Ukraine? (Clue: not as much as Vladimir Putin insists)
  3. Putin’s Russia Is Like Brezhnev’s USSR: Will the End Be the Same?
  4. Belarus and Ukraine: Historic Parallels, Russia’s Imperial Designs
  5. Russia’s “Civilizational” Push into Africa
  6. Ukraine crisis: Putin recognizes breakaway regions, Biden orders limited sanctions – 5 essential reads
  7. Russia-Ukraine: A Last Chance for Peace
  8. Will Ukraine Escape Russian Domination?
  9. Mr. Johnson, What Will the UK Do on Russia?
  10. The Breakdown of the European Union
  11. Russia holds tank drills near Ukraine
  12. Putin’s Pipedream and the Laws of Demography
  13. The Rape of Ukraine
  14. If the World’s #1 Sponsor of Terror Deserves a Carrot, Why Not Russia?
  15. kuleba: Ukraine praises ‘unity’ with West against Russian ‘ultimatums’ – Times of India
  16. Russia holds tank drills near Ukraine
  17. What Does Putin Want and How Does He Plan to Get It?
  18. Light of the Church and the Shadow of War: Ukraine, Pt. 8
  19. Putin Loses His Key Ally in the EU as Hungary’s Orban Turns on the Russian Leader
  20. Operation Ganga: A mission of no sleep
  21. Children detained and put in cages for holding ‘no war’ banners in Moscow
  22. Ukrainian Film Critics Call for Full Russia Boycott
  23. Remember Ukrainians in shelters, Pope says; thanks Poland for refugee help
  24. On War
  25. Images from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
  26. Zooming Kiev
  27. GOP senators push back hard on Trump’s praise of Putin
  28. Russian invasion of Ukraine enters seventh day – BBC News
  29. Russia Moves to Censor Domestic Media
  30. Embassy of Belarus in Treptow smeared
  31. Our response to the situation in Ukraine
  32. PM’s call with President Zelenskyy
  33. Russia-Ukraine Conflict at a Glance Infographic
  34. Russian Sberbank leaves the European Market
    Praying for Putin
  35. A Prayer for Ukraine
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5 thoughts on “Miscalculation as high as it was in August 1914 No one outside of Serbia expected war

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